Forum:2009 Pacific hurricane season
September 15E.LINDA 96. E Invest NHC's has this at high risk. It has an EYE. Will bypass TD stage? :Lastes TWO says: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ::Update: A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED 1025 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ...AND IT APPEARS THAT A CENTER MAY BE FORMING CLOSER TO DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. COMPUTER MODELS ALSO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. TCFA. Tropical Depression 15E Up on NHC. Not forecast to do much, just get a name and spin some fish around. --Patteroast 10:09, September 7, 2009 (UTC) :Heading very dry air. 17:08, September 7, 2009 (UTC) I predict it to peak at 40 mph. Tropical Storm Linda 60 mph, 997 mb. Aol:500 West of the Panama/El Salvador Border GFDL predicts TD. Belive it or not, a small area of this is SOUTH of the monsoon trough. Aol:420 Miles east Of Colima Labor day is hurricane day! Flare up in convection! 16E.MARTY Aol: Just offshore Mexico Convection stable for several hours, but it is on the increasing trend. 97E.Invest Banding EYE forming!!! Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Here comes some convection Tropical Storm Marty Upgraded. Should be short-lived. --Patteroast 16:39, September 16, 2009 (UTC) :Going poof. Down to TD, next advisory could probably be the last. --Patteroast 16:21, September 19, 2009 (UTC) 98E.INVEST High risk from NHC, south of the tip of Baja. They seem to expect it to be a TD any time, now. --Patteroast 16:19, September 19, 2009 (UTC) Poof. 17E.NORA Tropical Storm Nora Tropical Storm Nora's formed, formerly 99E.INVEST and TD17E. More of the same, not predicted to do much of anything. --Patteroast 11:51, September 23, 2009 (UTC) :GFDL predicts moderate Cat 2, HWRIF predicts strong Cat 1. Poof. October 18E.OLAF Tropical Depression Eighteen-E You know the routine. Formed, might become a storm, will be short-lived and won't affect land. --Patteroast 18:23, October 1, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Olaf Upgraded. --Patteroast 21:13, October 1, 2009 (UTC) :Hm. I may have been off on the part about not affecting land. Looking like it's going to hit Baja, although probably only as a remnant low. --Patteroast 06:27, October 3, 2009 (UTC) ::Looks like it is becoming ET as it gets absorbed into a front. 19E.PACTRICA 92E.INVEST Medium risk on NHC. "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS." --Patteroast 20:56, October 9, 2009 (UTC) :May affect land too, from the tropical weather discussion: AS FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CENTER STALLING THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE N AND NE LATE SAT AND SUN AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA. --Hurricane Diana 21:12, October 9, 2009 (UTC) At the same time some models take 92E onshore in Mexico. :THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18N106W...OR ABOUT 120 NM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES. THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECOMAN THROUGH MANZANILLO TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. I do want to add that it's set as a 1009 mb low in the 1800 UTC surface analysis and shown as strengthening to 1008 in the next 24 hours while moving northwest. We may have something here. --Hurricane Diana 00:16, October 10, 2009 (UTC) ::High risk now. :::TCFA is up on JTWC, next TWO should be out any minute. --Hurricane Diana 17:26, October 10, 2009 (UTC) ::::Still red, says that a tropical depression could form today or tonight. --Hurricane Diana 17:53, October 10, 2009 (UTC) TD 19-E Upgraded. TS Patrica Upgraded. :Interesting, the Forecast track has this being a min-Jimena and conditions remain favorable for intensification. Anyone think Cat 2 other than me? ::Looking quite pathetic at the moment, they may be too nice giving it 50 mph and they say that they might be generous... Tropical Storm warnings up though. --Hurricane Diana 23:04, October 13, 2009 (UTC) 20E.RICK TD 20 Ladies and gents, a new storm is out there. It is forecast to become Rick by tomorrow, and then by this weekend, it could become a strong major hurricane(135 mph or higher winds), and threaten western Mexico. 23:09, October 15, 2009 (UTC) Hurricane Rick Eye developing! :Huh. NHC still says it's a storm at the moment, but this storm is VERY interesting. Official forecast makes it a cat 4. Geez. --Patteroast 07:08, October 16, 2009 (UTC) ::Conditions seem almost perfect for becoming a major hurricane, especially with the extremely high chance the SHIPS model gives of Rapid Intensification, at an insane 82%. They even mention that Rick could get much stronger than forecast, let's hope that's not the case. --Hurricane Diana 07:40, October 16, 2009 (UTC) :::I have seen higher (Jimena) RI' . I do not it will get stronger than Jimena though now up to Cat 2. ::::Yeah, 82% is still way too high for my liking though. Oh, that and it's now a category 4 and still strengthening. I think I might need a nap, lol. --Hurricane Diana 11:27, October 17, 2009 (UTC) Major Hurricane Rick Upgraded to cat4 as HD says. Would not be surprised to see get upgraded further to a Cat 5 at 8 which would break Elida, BTW. :The way it's going I wouldn't be surprised either. Not sure why you're referencing Elida, when Kenna was stronger that year, but I'm probably missing something here. I get what you meant though, this one could pull off category 5. EDIT: Just noticed that they said it may be trying to form an outer eyewall, that might tone Rick down a bit. --Hurricane Diana 16:15, October 17, 2009 (UTC) ::Please look at w:Hurricane Elida (2002). It took Jimena 48 hours to start an ERC 48 hours after it developed an outer eywall. Also, ERC tends to maintain storms intensity not weaken them. :::All right, though that link doesn't work, let me check Wikipedia which is probably what you meant... Yeah, now I get it, sorry about that. For Rick, maintaining strength seems to be toning it down considering what it's done lately though, maybe I'm just being too hopeful here. --Hurricane Diana 16:52, October 17, 2009 (UTC) ::::As of 3:10P PDT, Rick is a category five. What is this, the second in the world this year? Either way, a very impressive storm... with a worrisome track forecast. --Patteroast 22:14, October 17, 2009 (UTC) :::::Oh my... 180 mph winds now, second only to 1997 Linda. Not sure what else can be said right now. --Hurricane Diana 02:54, October 18, 2009 (UTC) :::::::Forecast peak is at 185 mph. ::::::::It so beautiful. :::::::::Hurricanes can surely be that way... Beautiful yet destructive. This is the best we've seen in quite a while. --Hurricane Diana 03:16, October 18, 2009 (UTC) ::::::::::The forecast calls for further strengthening... will we have a new record for the strongest EPac storm soon? Linda's pressure reached an estimated 902 mbar. Rick's at 906 mbar. Wow. --Patteroast 03:24, October 18, 2009 (UTC) :::::::::::I hope so. ::::::::::::My forecast is: :::::::::::::12 185 mph, 903 mb :::::::::::::24 190 mph, 899 mb :::::::::::::36 165 mph, 913 mb :::::::::::::48 155 mph, 918 mb :::::::::::::72 135 mph, 941 mb :::::::::::::96 105 mph, 972 mb, Inland :::::::::::::120 45 mph, 1000 mb, Inland. :::::::::::: Wow! This is what it's all about right here. Rick is so powerful that it dominates the atmosphere around it. Rick is the master of his own fate, so to speak. It completely controls the shear pattern around it. Almost without exception, when storms get this strong, the only external factors that can act against it are SSTS (gradually) and land (quickly). I don't think I've ever seen a better organized hurricane. Outflow is well established and completely uninhibited in all quadrants. The storm's inner core is perfectly symmetrical. A well defined ring of deep convection wraps fully around it. The eye is a perfect circle. I've looked at literally hundreds of storms from all over the world. Rick has to be one of the five most beautiful hurricanes I've ever seen. I've actually stopped and thought about it and I honestly believe that. Defining "beautiful" as visually evocative, Gilbert beats it for sure and undoubtedly some WPAC storms but other than that Rick rules the roost. That is the kind of company Rick is in right now. I am just in awe. Oh what I wouldn't give to own some of these satellite loops. Wow! -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:22, October 18, 2009 (UTC) :From the 11pm discussion: :"The satellite presentation of Hurricane Rick can be expressing in one word: spectacular."'' :Couldn't have said it better myself. I think 'spectacular' is the only word that comes close to doing it justice. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:38, October 18, 2009 (UTC) ::Eric you always admire tip has it beat it for you? :::Tip is untouchable. Typhoon Tip (I think you can spot him) was the hurricane of hurricanes. Gale force winds extended roughly 1,000 miles from the center, hurricane force winds extended out roughly 600 miles. Its cirrus envelope was large enough to completely cover the western half of the US. The Western Pacific makes everywhere else look like Little League. If we could see Tip with the satellite technology we have today, I think it would make all this oohing and ahhing over Rick seem silly. Tip was so large and so powerful that it created its own weather pattern. Synoptic scale weather systems (like high pressure ridges and low pressure troughs), the systems that are normally the puppetmasters of these storms, got the hell out of the way! In terms of raw power, Rick looks pretty small when you compare it to some of the West Pacific greats, but just in terms of simple beauty; that evocative elegance, Rick is right up there. Isabel is a good Atlantic example, along with Katrina and Rita. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:27, October 18, 2009 (UTC) :::::I have ran out of things to say with Rick. ::::::ERC coming. :::::::Oh my! It looks like Linda 97? 902/185? Not anymore. :Look at this it just so beautiful. Major Hurricane Rick, the record breaker Down to 175, though. Foretasted to make landfall as a 2 or a 3 :Did I miss something? I didn't see a record fall but I'm still half asleep and could have slept through something big. And to an extent I agree with SkyFury, that Tip would look purely amazing with current technology, but I don't think that lessens Rick at all. If anything, I'd rather be seeing a hurricane like this that was small (to an extent), which is beautiful but will impact fewer people. And when I saw it weakened a little I chuckled a bit considering how it looks and how strong it still is. --Hurricane Diana 15:20, October 18, 2009 (UTC) ::It never fell, it peaked at 185/906. :::Okay, so I didn't miss anything. By the way, I just looked at the advisory I missed overnight, I think it peaked at 180 instead of 185, but at this point that's just nitpicking, really anything over about 165 tends to be. --Hurricane Diana 15:29, October 18, 2009 (UTC) ::::Down to 160. :::::My god, what a storm! Rick is the 2nd strongest hurricane on record in the East Pacific, and the strongest storm worldwide in 2009. I can't imagine any other season like this. I would easily see it being retired, if it does enough damage. 19:56, October 18, 2009 (UTC) ::::::You read my mind. :::::::Anyone here, Please tell me why are they no evactions with Rick? If it strikes just north of Cobo San lucas it may kill 600 to 700 poeple. 03C.NONAME TD Three-C THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE ADVISORIES ON A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM CENTERED 650 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AT 1100 AM HST. Retirement at glance Andres 5%-Minor damage, usually late for first named storm, though I do not know why this on the list in the first place. Blanca 2% Not a dud, but no damage. Carlos 3% A rare way of weaken, small, low-latitude, but no damage. Dolores 0% Dud Lana 2% Similar to Blanca Enrique 1% Similar to Dolores Felicia 31% Only minor to moderate damage in Hawaii but was worse than Fefa which got itself retired. Guillermo 4% Dud, but rare path. Hilda 0% Dud Ignacio 0% Dud Jimena 97% Whoa, Whoa, what happened here? Severe Damage in Baja, third worst hurricane in the region not consirding since it gets hit twice a yer theses days. Dont forget that it became a hurricane Faster than Humby, yes Humby. Kevin 1% Dud Linda 1% Dud Marty 1% Dud Nora 0% Dud Olaf 4% Not enough impact. :Hm. Jimena has to get retired, I'd be completely shocked if it wasn't. Felicia I don't see retiring, same for Andres. The rest really aren't worthy of retiring at all, though remembering 1997, which used this list, I wonder why a couple weren't retired earlier (Mainly Linda, no impact but strongest in the basin since they started routine tracking, and Nora, just for the hitting northern Baja as a hurricane and being a tropical storm well into Arizona/California). This year's versions didn't do anything though. --Hurricane Diana 02:02, October 10, 2009 (UTC) ::Honestly, considering how rarely EPac names get retired, I'd put Jimena at maybe 50-50 and everything else at nil. Also, isn't it the idea to not retire hurricanes if they have no impact? :P--Patteroast 10:49, October 10, 2009 (UTC) ::Jimena had a better chance than Norbert. Jimena tied or set many records, Norbert did not. Jimena was much stronger, the strongest the Western Hemisphere has even seen since September 2007. :::It's true that storms rarely get retired, but storms also don't have a huge impact like Jimena too often in the EPac. But I still stand by my thought that the strongest hurricane ever in the basin, 1997 Linda, should have been retired for that record alone, but I'm not the one to decide these things, just my opinion. (Oops, forgot to sign in, that IP was me >>) --Hurricane Diana 17:21, October 10, 2009 (UTC) :::Their an even more storm that should have been retired. Norbert 08 (Happy Anniversary), Liza 76, Kathleen 76, Nora 97, Paul 82. i think the WMO hesitates. Hopefully, the WMO will retire Jimena assuming that Felecia does not get retired. ::I could see Jimena being retired, but because Pacific retirements are random, I can't say for sure. By the way, TD 20E formed just a few hours ago, and forecast says cat. 4, up to 140 mph winds, and worse, possible recurvature towards Mexico next week! 23:06, October 15, 2009 (UTC) :::Historically, the bar for retirement in the Eastern Pacific has been pretty low, so I wouldn't rule it out, but 3 dead and $60 million in damage is hardly what I'd call severe. Definately significant and extensive, but not severe. I'd give it maybe a 50-60% chance, and that's if it even gets requested. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 05:36, October 18, 2009 (UTC) ::::What are Ricks chances of retirement? High? :::Sky, It may not look like a lot, but Alma was retired last year, so it's not impossible for Jimena to join the list. Rick hasn't hit land, so we aren't sure what's in store for us with him. 20:00, October 18, 2009 (UTC) Memories/Season Overview Although, we do not usually do this but since this since was a mini-05. It would be nice to see what some peoples favorite part of the season. (You many include the Atlantic, BTW). Mines was last night when Rick gained winds of 180 mph. :We've had interesting storms this year, Rick is definitely up there, but I'm going to go a little off the beaten path, at least somewhat, and go out to the WPac early this month, with Typhoon Parma. It wasn't the early strength that puts it here, it was the path that resulted from interaction with Typhoon Melor that caused its northwest movement to reverse, heading southeast to the Philippines for the second time. Then it moved slowly east, eventually heading back west, and the country was hit a third time. After over a week of erratic motion, it finally moved west and became a tropical depression just before moving inland over Vietnam and dissipating. It lasted 17 days and the track map looked like it was drawn by a five-year-old. --Hurricane Diana 16:36, October 18, 2009 (UTC)